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CLINICAL RESEARCH: RISK FOR CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE

Has the Risk for Coronary Heart Disease Changed Among U.S. Adults?

Division of Adult and Community Health, Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia

Manuscript received September 7, 2005; revised manuscript received May 16, 2006, accepted May 23, 2006.

^_* Address correspondence and reprints requests to: Dr. Umed A. Ajani, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 4770 Buford Highway NE, Mailstop K-50, Atlanta, Georgia 30341 (Email: uajani{at}cdc.gov).

OBJECTIVES: The objective of this study was to compare the 10-year risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) among U.S adults during the years 1988 to 1994 with that among U.S. adults during the years 1999 to 2002.

BACKGROUND: A decline in deaths as the result of CHD has been reported. Data about changes in actual risk of developing CHD among U.S. adults are sparse.

METHODS: Data for noninstitutionalized U.S. residents ages 20 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES)-III (1988 to 1994) or NHANES 1999 to 2002 were examined to compute 10-year risk of developing CHD using modified Framingham risk score, as adopted by the National Cholesterol Education Program, Adult Treatment Panel III.

RESULTS: Most participants in both surveys had a low (<10%) 10-year risk of developing CHD. The proportion of participants at intermediate (10% to 20%) and high (>20%) 10-year risk of developing CHD also was similar.

CONCLUSIONS: Data from national surveys conducted approximately a decade apart showed no appreciable difference in the distribution of 10-year risk of developing CHD. Greater efforts are needed to reduce the risk of developing CHD among U.S. adults.

Abbreviations and Acronyms   CHD = coronary heart disease   NCEP/ATP = National Cholesterol Education Program/Adult Treatment Panel   NHANES = National Health And Nutrition Examination Survey

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