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Figure 1 Simplified diagram of the Markov decision-analytic model. The square at the left represents the three treatment strategy choices. The M represents the Markov process, which leads to one of many health states. The circles represent chance events that may occur in each cycle (e.g., remain well, stroke, hemorrhage, drug toxicity, reversion to atrial fibrillation—not shown) and results in continued good health or one of several disabling states. The branch from Well illustrates these chance events. Health states in the figure are simplified, and each represents multiple states in the actual model (e.g., "disabled" includes separate health states in atrial fibrillation or sinus rhythm with mild or moderate-to-severe disability due to stroke, hemorrhage, left atrial catheter ablation [LACA] complications, or drug toxicity). ICH = intracranial hemorrhage.
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