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Figure 4 Relationship between prior and posterior probability for the null hypothesis in the Heart Protection Study (6). The x-axis of this graph represents the prior probability that the log odds ratio (OR) lies within a putative "clinically unimportant" region of equivalence (±5% about a null value of 0, as described in the legend to Figure 1), and the y-axis represents the associated posterior probability. The open circles (and standard deviations) are for the mildly skeptical, moderately skeptical, and highly skeptical priors, as illustrated in Figure 1. An analysis that is insensitive to one's prior degree of skepticism indicates a greater degree of stability in the resultant inferences. See text for further discussion.
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