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Figure 1 Alternative prior distributions of log odds ratio (OR) with respect to the null hypothesis, based on a "clinically unimportant" interval of ±5% about the mean of zero (from –0.05 to +0.05). All curves are normalized to the same unit area. An uninformative reference prior (not illustrated) is defined by a uniform distribution for the log OR ( p = 10). Smaller standard deviations represent greater degrees of skepticism with respect to the test hypothesis. At a mildly skeptical p = 0.4, 10% of the distribution is contained within the clinically unimportant null interval; at a moderately skeptical p = 0.07, 50% is within the interval; and at a highly skeptical p = 0.03, 90% is within the interval.
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