Advertisement







Click here for more guidelines.
CME Topic Collections Past Issues Search Current Issue Home
     

J Am Coll Cardiol, 2002; 39:1104-1112
© 2002 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation
This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Figures Only
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Shaw, R. E.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Shaw, R. E.

CLINICAL STUDY: INTERVENTIONAL CARDIOLOGY

Development of a risk adjustment mortality model using the American College of Cardiology–National Cardiovascular Data Registry (ACC–NCDR) experience: 1998–2000

Richard E. Shaw, PhD, FACC*,*, H. Vernon Anderson, MD, FACC*, Ralph G. Brindis, MD, FACC*, Ronald J. Krone, MD, FACC*, Lloyd W. Klein, MD, FACC*, Charles R. McKay, MD, FACC*, Peter C. Block, MD, FACC*, Leslee J. Shaw, PhD*, Kathleen Hewitt, MS, RN*, William S. Weintraub, MD, FACC* ACC-NCDR*

* San Francisco Heart Institute at Seton Medical Center, Daly City, California 94015, USA

Manuscript received August 13, 2001; revised manuscript received November 29, 2001, accepted January 9, 2002.

* Reprint requests and correspondence: Richard E. Shaw, PhD, FACC, San Francisco Heart Institute at Seton Medical Center, 1900 Sullivan Avenue, Daly City, California 94015, USA.
RichardShaw{at}dochs.org


    Abstract
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 Conclusions
 References
 
OBJECTIVES: We sought to develop and evaluate a risk adjustment model for in-hospital mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) procedures using data from a large, multi-center registry.

BACKGROUND: The 1998–2000 American College of Cardiology–National Cardiovascular Data Registry (ACC–NCDR) dataset was used to overcome limitations of prior risk-adjustment analyses.

METHODS: Data on 100,253 PCI procedures collected at the ACC–NCDR between January 1, 1998, and September 30, 2000, were analyzed. A training set/test set approach was used. Separate models were developed for presentation with and without acute myocardial infarction (MI) within 24 h.

RESULTS: Factors associated with increased risk of PCI mortality (with odds ratios in parentheses) included cardiogenic shock (8.49), increasing age (2.61 to 11.25), salvage (13.38) urgent (1.78) or emergent PCI (5.75), pre-procedure intra-aortic balloon pump insertion (1.68), decreasing left ventricular ejection fraction (0.87 to 3.93), presentation with acute MI (1.31), diabetes (1.41), renal failure (3.04), chronic lung disease (1.33); treatment approaches including thrombolytic therapy (1.39) and non-stent devices (1.64); and lesion characteristics including left main (2.04), proximal left anterior descending disease (1.97) and Society for Cardiac Angiography and Interventions lesion classification (1.64 to 2.11). Overall, excellent discrimination was achieved (C-index = 0.89) and application of the model to high-risk patient groups demonstrated C-indexes exceeding 0.80. Patient factors were more predictive in the MI model, while lesion and procedural factors were more predictive in the analysis of non-MI patients.

CONCLUSIONS: A risk adjustment model for in-hospital mortality after PCI was successfully developed using a contemporary multi-center registry. This model is an important tool for valid comparison of in-hospital mortality after PCI.

Abbreviations and Acronyms
  ACC–NCDR
  American College of Cardiology National Cardiovascular Data Registry
  CABG
  coronary artery bypass graft surgery
  CI
  confidence interval
  IABP
  intra-aortic balloon pump
  LAD
  left anterior descending
  LVEF
  left ventricular ejection fraction
  MI
  myocardial infarction
  OR
  odds ratio
  PCI
  percutaneous coronary intervention
  ROC
  receiver operating characteristic
  SCAI LC
  Society for Cardiac Angiography and Interventions Lesion Classification


The establishment of quality standards based on patient outcome data is a rational means for differentiating the quality of health care in the marketplace. Institutional variation in the baseline clinical risks of patients precludes the direct comparison of outcomes across institutions. The application of risk adjustment methodology to account for patient differences in these treatment outcomes is imperative for legitimate comparison of institutional results in the modern era of cardiovascular intervention. Mortality is the indicator that has been most widely used to evaluate the quality of cardiac treatment procedures. Cardiac surgeons addressed the problems associated with the publication in the late 1980s of unadjusted surgical mortality results in New York and other states by forming the Society of Thoracic Surgeons National Database and developing risk adjustment models for coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgical mortality (1–4). Studies conducted in the Veterans Administration Health Care System have also demonstrated that risk adjustment approaches provide a fair comparison of cardiac surgical outcomes across a broad spectrum of institutions (5).

There have been numerous efforts in recent years to incorporate risk adjustment methodology to evaluate differences in mortality rates for interventional procedures (6–14). These efforts have been limited by inconsistent definitions of the factors used in the models, small sample sizes, limited geographic representation, inclusion of programs that do not necessarily represent the standard of practice across the country, and patient samples that do not reflect contemporary percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) practice. The goal of the current study was to analyze the initial experience of the American College of Cardiology–National Cardiovascular Data Registry (ACC–NCDR) to develop a risk-adjusted model for mortality associated with PCI. The experience of this registry is described in a companion publication (15). The strengths of the ACC–NCDR registry experience include the use of standardized data definitions, data completeness procedures, geographic and institutional diversity, a large sample size, and analysis of contemporary PCI practice. These features offer a significant advantage over previous efforts to develop a risk-adjustment model for in-hospital mortality after PCI.


    Methods
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 Conclusions
 References
 
Data collection.   The data collection process has been described (15). For institutions with submissions passing the inclusion/exclusion criteria for data completeness, the first PCI procedure performed during a qualifying hospitalization was chosen for analysis. In all, 100,292 procedures passed the initial screening for inclusion into the risk model analysis. Because initial screening required that 99% completeness be achieved on all outcome variables, 39 hospitalizations were missing data on mortality. These 39 PCI procedures were excluded from the risk model development, leaving a total of 100,253 procedures.

Data elements entered into the mortality risk model included patient demographic data, cardiac risk factors, coronary revascularization status, anginal status, non-coronary disease processes, angiographic findings and procedural variables (Tables 1 through 5). A variable was constructed combining the lesion codes for the ACC/AHA type A-B-C lesion class along with the presence or absence of an occlusion, based on the work of Krone et al. (16). This classification scheme, referred to as the Society for Cardiac Angiography and Interventions Lesion Class (SCAI LC), produces four categories (I, II, III, IV): I—non–type C/patent; II—type C/patent; III—non–type C/occlusion; and IV—type C/occlusion. In a preliminary analysis, this classification system was highly correlated with PCI outcomes. Congestive heart failure was not included in the model, because there was a problem with one of the software vendor packages that allowed out-of-range values to be included in the database that could not be interpreted.


View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 1 Univariate Association of Patient Demographic and Cardiac Risk Factors With In-Hospital Mortality

 

View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 2 Univariate Association of Cardiac History and Anginal Status With In-Hospital Mortality

 

View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 3 Univariate Association of Other Noncoronary Disease Processes With In-Hospital Mortality

 

View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 4 Univariate Association of Angiographic Factors With In-Hospital Mortality

 

View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 5 Univariate Association of Procedural Factors With In-Hospital Mortality

 
Statistics.   Standard univariate methods were used to generate odds ratios (ORs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) in evaluating the relationship between individual factors and mortality. These were tested using Pearson’s chi-square test. Stepwise logistic regression analysis was performed using the SPSS 10.1 statistical software (SPSS Inc; Chicago, Illinois) to assess the independent relationship of all significant univariate factors with in-hospital mortality. Variables were entered and removed by a stepwise selection process, using residual Wald chi-square p values for entry of 0.5 and 0.1 for removal. Improvements in chi-square and maximum log likelihood stepwise methods, including Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness of fit chi-square estimates, were used to evaluate the regression model (17). Model discrimination was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) or C-index (18). The level of missing data varied from a low of 0.1% for gender to a high of 26.1% for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (Tables 1 through 5). Missing values were assigned values using multiple imputation methods (19).

Risk model development.   Univariate analyses were used to identify patient demographic and risk factor (Table 1), cardiac history and anginal status (Table 2), non-coronary disease processes (Table 3), angiographic (Table 4) and procedural (Table 5) factors significantly associated with mortality that were included in the regression model. Of the 32 variables evaluated, hypertension, previous myocardial infarction (MI), previous CABG and lesion in a graft did not achieve a significance level of <0.01 and were not included in the regression model. Hypercholesterolemia was also omitted from the model because of its counterintuitive relationship to the mortality outcome, perhaps related to the advanced sickness of many of the patients treated. Others (8,9) also have noted this peculiarity.

A standard training set/test set approach was used. A randomly generated training set was used to develop the regression model, and the test set consisting of the remaining patients was used to assess the performance of the model against observed mortality results. After the risk factors were determined and their regression weights calculated from the training set, the standard probability formula was applied to the test set to determine the risk of mortality for each patient. The ROC curves were generated for the training set and the test set.

The model was validated in two ways. First, the dataset was ordered using the values for each patient’s probability of mortality generated from the regression model. The dataset was then divided into deciles of risk, and the observed mortality rate was calculated for each decile. The observed versus the expected mortality was plotted and evaluated using the R-square statistic. The model was also validated by identifying patient subgroups that were known to have high mortality rates. In addition, separate logistic regression models were generated for patients presenting with acute MI within 24 h of PCI and those presenting without acute MI within 24 h.


    Results
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 Conclusions
 References
 
In 100,253 PCI procedures, in-hospital mortality occurred in 1,422 (1.4%). There was wide variation in mortality among subgroups of patients, with the highest mortality rates observed in patients presenting for emergent salvage procedures (30.9%), PCI indication for shock (28.0%), insertion of an intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) pre-PCI (19.1%) and LVEF <10% (10.1%) (Tables 1–5).

The training set consisted of 50,123 PCI procedures randomly selected from the overall patient population. In this group, 707 deaths occurred (1.4%). Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified PCI indication for shock, increasing age, the need for urgent or emergent PCI, pre-procedure placement of an IABP, decreasing LVEF, acute MI within 24 h of hospital admission, diabetes, renal failure, chronic lung disease, treatment approaches including use of thrombolytics and non-stent devices, and lesion characteristics including presence of left main or proximal left anterior descending (LAD) disease and SCAI lesion class as factors independently associated with in-hospital mortality (Table 6) with a C-index of 0.89, demonstrating excellent model discrimination. The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was not significant, indicating little departure from a perfect fit.


View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 6 Multivariate Analysis of Factors Significantly Associated With Mortality: Results in the Training Dataset (n = 50,123)

 
The model was then applied to the test set that consisted of 50,130 PCI procedures in which 715 deaths occurred (1.4%). This generated a C-index of 0.89, demonstrating equally good model discrimination for the test set. The predicted risks of patients were ranked and divided into deciles. The number of predicted deaths was plotted against the number of actual deaths in each decile (Fig. 1). The computed R-square was 0.96, demonstrating excellent correlation between the expected and observed mortality. Table 7 shows the observed and predicted mortalities, area under the ROC curve and 95% CIs for the application of the model to the high-risk groups of patients in the test set. The predictive model appears to be relatively stable across these high-risk patients, with areas under the ROC curve exceeding 0.80 in almost every category. The lowest values occurred in the patients with shock and those undergoing emergent salvage procedures. A similar finding was reported by O’Connor et al. (8).



View larger version (16K):
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Figure 1 Plot of observed (x-axis) versus predicted (y-axis) deaths ordered by decile of risk in the training set.

 

View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 7 Observed and Predicted Mortality and Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve for Selected High Risk Patient Groups in Test Dataset (50,130)

 
Separate models were developed for patients presenting with acute MI within 24 h of their PCIs and those presenting without acute MI. These results are reported in Tables 8 and 9. The area under the ROC curve was less in these models than in the overall model. The C-index for the analysis of acute MI patients was 0.87 (0.85 to 0.89) and for non-MI patients was 0.86 (0.83 to 0.88). It is interesting to note the pattern of factors in each of these models compared with the overall model. In the model for acute MI patients, the strongest factors were age, diabetes, left main disease, a proximal LAD lesion, shock and use of devices other than stents. Procedures classified as urgent, placement of an IABP and chronic lung disease were not significant in this model, and the effects of factors such as LVEF, SCAI lesion class and classification as an emergent procedure were not as strong as in the overall model, in which acute MI and non-MI patients were mixed (Table 8). For patients presenting without MI, presentation in shock, acuteness of the procedure, pre-placement of an IABP, SCAI lesion class, renal failure and chronic lung disease emerged as strongly predictive factors (Table 9). The effects of age, diabetes, left main disease and the use of devices other than stents were lesser, while lesions in the proximal LAD and use of thrombolytic therapy dropped out of the model entirely. The pattern observed in the acute MI model seems to be consistent with the highest-risk patients presenting as older, with diabetes, in shock and having involvement of the left coronary system. The pattern observed in the non-MI model seems to be consistent with lesion morphology and classification of the acuteness of the procedure as being the factors most related to patient outcome.


View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 8 Multivariate Analysis of Factors Significantly Associated With Mortality for Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction Within 24 h: Results in the Training Dataset (n = 8,921)

 

View this table:
[in this window]
[in a new window]
 
Table 9 Multivariate Analysis of Factors Significantly Associated With Mortality for Patients With No Acute Myocardial Infarction Within 24 h: Results in the Training Dataset(n = 41,202)

 

    Discussion
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 Conclusions
 References
 
Over the last decade, advancements in technology and new pharmaceutical agents have helped to reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with PCI (20). However, PCI still carries significant risk, especially in subgroups in which a more complex clinical condition may lead to higher adverse event rates. Databases have emerged as tools crucial for evaluating the quality of cardiac care (21). The ACC–NCDR provides a way for institutions to collect high-quality local data and to merge those data with data from other centers across the country through a national data registry. The current study demonstrates the potential value of using this national database for developing a robust risk-adjustment mortality model for PCI.

Prior risk modeling has been limited by inconsistent definitions, small sample sizes, lack of institutional diversity, restricted geographic representation and patient samples that do not reflect contemporary PCI practice. Hannan et al. (6) published results from the New York State mandated registry for PCI. This represented one of the first efforts to develop a mortality risk model using data from several centers. The patient sample that was included, however, reflected an early era in the development of interventional technology and pharmaceutical treatment. More recently, Kimmel et al. (7) analyzed the experience in 10,622 first-time PCI procedures from the Society for Cardiac Angiography and Interventions Registry. O’Connor et al. (8) reported on the development of a risk-adjusted mortality model using 15,331 patients who underwent PCI over a three-year period at six regional centers in northern New England. Although the data definitions and collection protocols were well-established and produced high-quality data in both of these studies, the sample sizes were relatively small for model development. In the Kimmel et al. (7) study, the geographic distribution was broad, but the number of centers was small, while the northern New England experience represented a very narrow geographic region. Neither of these studies included patient samples comparable to contemporary PCI cohorts, wherein the proportion of patients receiving stents and glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors exceeds 75%. Two more recent analyses (13,14) have included patient samples that reflect the widespread use of stents and glycoprotein IIb/IIIa inhibitors, although both were analyses of a single center’s experience.

Block et al. (9) combined the experience of eight registries in a pooled meta-analysis of 158,273 cases to identify factors associated with risk of Q-wave MI, emergent cardiac surgery and death. This effort was helpful in providing a broad view of data elements across a large sample of patients. It was limited for the purpose of model development, however, in that source data were not available to apply standard statistical analyses. Other efforts, such as the multi-center study of Ellis et al. (10), the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Percutaneous Transluminal Coronary Angioplasty registries (11) and the New Approaches in Coronary Intervention Registry (12), have utilized risk-adjustment techniques. However, the centers involved in these studies were highly selective and not necessarily representative of a broad assessment of PCI experience.

Comparison with models from other studies.   The variables that were generated from the ACC–NCDR mortality model are consistent with a number of other studies published from local databases and registries. O’Connor et al. (8) identified increasing age, cardiogenic shock, urgent and emergent procedures, LVEF, pre-procedure IABP placement and attempt of type C lesions as significant predictors in their model. They also noted that heart failure and creatinine levels ≥2.0 mg/dl were predictors in their model, but these two variables were not included in the analysis of the ACC–NCDR experience, although the definition of renal failure in the current analysis was based on similar creatinine levels. The ACC–NCDR data analysis included usage of devices, which was not addressed in the O’Connor et al. (8) model. The only factor common to both studies that was significant in the O’Connor et al. (8) model and that fell out of the ACC–NCDR model was the presence of peripheral vascular disease. In an analysis of patients undergoing more contemporary PCI, Resnic et al. (13) identified similar factors, including cardiogenic shock, class 3 or 4 heart failure, left main intervention, tachycardia, chronic renal insufficiency, age ≥75 years, type B2 or C lesions, acute MI, unstable angina and stent use (a negative relationship to mortality).

Block et al. (9) pooled data from eight different sources and identified a number of factors associated with in-hospital death. Variables they identified that overlap with the current analysis include age, LVEF, acute MI, procedure acuteness, cardiogenic shock, use of IABP, diabetes, renal failure and lesion type. There is remarkable consistency for many of the factors across all databases.

Other studies have focused on the unique relationship of lesion factors to adverse outcomes. Ellis et al. (14) found 10 lesion factors that were related to ischemic complications after PCI. The most significant factors were a non-chronic total occlusion and degenerated saphenous vein graft. In the current analysis, the SCAI LC lesion classification combined the effect of type C and occlusion. However, treatment of a lesion in a vein graft did not have a significant relationship to in-hospital mortality. The assessment of vein graft irregularities in the Ellis et al. (14) study probably represents a more comprehensive analysis of the condition of the saphenous vein graft, which may have enhanced the predictive utility of this variable. Zaacks et al. (22) found that focused characteristics of lesions (presence of thrombus, inability to protect a side branch and degenerated vein graft lesions) were more likely to be related to complications, while the more general classification of lesions using the ACC/AHA A-B-C system were more predictive of procedural success. Several lesion factors that are consistent with other studies emerged in the current analysis as predictors of mortality. One of the most important aspects of the current analysis, however, is the development of separate models for acute MI and non-MI patients. This analysis showed that lesion factors were more highly predictive of in-hospital mortality for non-MI patients than for acute-MI patients.

The utility of risk models.   It is important to emphasize that the development of predictive models is as much an art as it is a science. Models are dependent on the quality and accuracy of the data and the relative rate of the outcome event being studied. If the quality of the data is suspect, the modeling process is unpredictable. Likewise, when the outcomes assessed occur infrequently, as in PCI mortality, the modeling process is even more challenging. These limitations of modeling must be kept in mind when evaluating and applying the results of the models presented herein as well as other models developed for PCI outcomes.

Study limitations.   There were variables in the ACC–NCDR that could not be reliably used for the current analysis. The variable for assessing the status of congestive heart failure had uninterpretable data resulting from a software vendor problem. This problem was corrected, and the heart failure variable will be available for future analyses. The logistic regression approach has an upper limit of predictive capability, with a C-statistic of around 0.87 (23). Techniques such as neural networks are capable of achieving indexes to 0.93 and may play a role in future modeling efforts. It is also not clear to what extent these models built on national datasets can be generalized to local datasets. Comparisons of several models used in cardiac surgery have demonstrated similar predictive capabilities (24,25), but application from one setting to another has limitations (26). These same issues are present for risk-adjusted models developed for PCI mortality.

Perhaps the most significant limitation of the current study is the lack of a systematic approach to auditing the data. Although many consistency checks were instituted in the data collection process, the extent to which these data reflect clinical reality at each institution is not known. It is imperative that future databases used for institutional evaluation be subjected to valid and objective audit processes.


    Conclusions
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 Conclusions
 References
 
This study represents the development of a risk-adjustment model for in-hospital mortality after PCI in a large, contemporary, multi-institutional national database. This analysis has generated a powerful tool for evaluating and comparing mortality outcomes across institutions, which is crucial in the current era of cardiovascular intervention.


    Acknowledgments
 
The authors and the ACC–NCDR Oversight and Planning Task Force thank the members of the Publications and Development Subcommittee: Ben D. McCallister, MD; Charles R. McKay, MD; David O. Williams, MD; H. Vernon Anderson, MD; John F. Williams, Jr., MD; Leslee J. Shaw, PhD; Lloyd W. Klein, MD; Martha J. Radford, MD; Michael A. Kutcher, MD; Michael J. Wolk, MD; Peter C. Block, MD; Ralph G. Brindis, MD, MPH; Raymond J. Gibbons, MD; Richard E. Shaw, PhD; Ronald J. Krone, MD; Ronald N. Riner, MD; Ross A. Davies, MD; William S. Weintraub, MD. The authors acknowledge the technical assistance provided by Jim Emlet, MS, in the preparation of the data analyzed and Michael B. Pliam, MD, PhD, for his work on the risk adjustment methodology.


    References
 Top
 Abstract
 Methods
 Results
 Discussion
 Conclusions
 References
 
1. Hannan EL, Kumar K, Racz M, et al. New York State’s cardiac surgery reporting system: four years later. Ann Thorac Surg. 1994;58:1852–1857

2. Edwards FH, Clark RE, Schwartz M. Coronary artery bypass grafting: the Society of Thoracic Surgeons national database experience. Ann Thorac Surg. 1994;57:12–19

3. Edwards FH, Peterson RJ, Bridges C, Ceithaml EL. Use of a Bayesian statistical model for risk assessment in coronary artery surgery: update. Ann Thorac Surg. 1995;59:1611–1612

4. for the Society of Thoracic Surgeons’ National Database CommitteeShroyer AL, Plomondon ME, Grover FL, Edwards FH. The 1996 coronary artery bypass risk model: the Society of Thoracic Surgeons Adult Cardiac National Database. Ann Thorac Surg. 1999;67:1205–1208

5. Hammermeister KE, Johnson R, Marshall G, Grover FL. Continuous assessment and improvement in quality of care: a model from the Department of Veterans Affairs cardiac surgery. Ann Surg. 1994;219:281–289

6. Hannan EL, Arani DT, Johnson LW, Kemp HG Jr, Lukacik G. Percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty in New York State: risk factors and outcomes. JAMA. 1992;268:3092–3097

7. for the Registry Committee of the Society for Cardiac Angiography and InterventionsKimmel SE, Berlin JB, Strom BL, Laskey WK. Development and validation of a simplified predictive index for major complications in contemporary percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty practice. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1995;26:931–938

8. for the Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study GroupO’Connor GT, Malenka DJ, Quinton H, et al. Multivariate prediction of in-hospital mortality after percutaneous coronary interventions in 1994–1996. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;34:681–691

9. Block PC, Peterson EC, Krone R, et al. Identification of variables needed to risk adjust outcomes of coronary interventions: evidence-based guidelines for efficient data collection. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1998;32:275–282

10. Ellis SG, Omoigui N, Bittl JA, et al. Analysis and comparison of operator-specific outcomes in interventional cardiology: from a multicenter database of 4,860 quality-controlled procedures. Circulation. 1996;93:431–439

11. Williams DO, Holubkov R, Yeh W, et al. Percutaneous coronary intervention in the current era compared with 1985–1986: the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute Registries. Circulation. 2000;102:2945–2951

12. Mark DS, Mensah GA, Kennard ED, Detre K, Holmes DR. Race, baseline characteristics, and clinical outcomes after coronary intervention: the New Approaches in Coronary Intervention (NACI) registry. Am Heart J. 2000;140:162–169

13. Resnic FS, Ohno-Machado L, Selwyn A, Simon DI, Popma JJ. Simplified risk score models accurately predict the risk of major in-hospital complications following percutaneous coronary intervention. Am J Cardiol. 2001;88:5–9

14. Ellis SG, Guetta V, Miller D, Whitlow PL, Topol EJ. Relation between lesion characteristics and risk with percutaneous intervention in the stent and glycoprotein IIb/IIIa era—an analysis of results from 10,907 lesions and proposal for new classification scheme. Circulation. 1999;100:1971–1976

15. Anderson HV, Shaw RE, Brindis RG, et al. A contemporary overview of percutaneous coronary interventions: the American College of Cardiology–National Cardiovascular Data Registry. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2002;39:1096–1103

16. Krone RJ, Laskey WK, Johnson C, et al. A simplified lesion classification for predicting success and complications of coronary angioplasty. Am J Cardiol. 2000;85:1179–1184

17. Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied logistic regression. New York, NY: John Wiley & Sons; 1989.

18. Hanley JA, McNeil BJ. The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Diagn Radiol. 1982;143:29–36

19. Harrell FE, Lee KL, Mark DB. Multivariate prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors. Stat Med. 1996;15:361–387

20. for the Northern New England Cardiovascular Diseases Study GroupMcGrath P, Malenka DJ, Wennberg DE, et al. Changing outcomes in percutaneous coronary interventions: a study of 34,752 procedures in Northern New England, 1990 to 1997. J Am Coll Cardiol. 1999;34:674–680

21. Grover FL, Hammermeister KE, Shroyer LW. Quality initiatives and the power of the database: what they are and how they run. Ann Thorac Surg. 1995;60:1514–1521

22. Zaacks SM, Allen JE, Calvin JE, et al. Value of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association stenosis morphology classification for coronary interventions in the late 1990s. Am J Cardiol. 1998;82:43–49

23. Steen PM. Approaches to predictive modeling. Ann Thorac Surg. 1994;58:1836–1840

24. Pliam MB, Shaw RE, Zapolanski A. Comparative analysis of coronary surgery risk stratification models. J Invas Cardiol. 1997;9:203–222

25. Peterson ED, DeLong ER, Muhlbaier LH, et al. Challenges in comparing risk-adjusted bypass surgery mortality results: results from the Cooperative Cardiovascular Project. J Am Coll Cardiol. 2000;36:2174–2184

26. Ivanov J, Tu JV, Naylor D. Ready-made, recalibrated, or remodeled? Issues in the use of risk indexes for assessing mortality after coronary artery bypass graft surgery. Circulation. 1999;99:2098–2104




This article has been cited by other articles:


Home page
JAMAHome page
T. T. Tsai, T. M. Maddox, M. T. Roe, D. Dai, K. P. Alexander, P. M. Ho, J. C. Messenger, B. K. Nallamothu, E. D. Peterson, J. S. Rumsfeld, et al.
Contraindicated Medication Use in Dialysis Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
JAMA, December 9, 2009; 302(22): 2458 - 2464.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Circ Cardiovasc Qual OutcomesHome page
K. M. Kenney, M. C. Marzo, N. R. Ondrasik, and T. Wisenbaugh
Percutaneous Coronary Intervention Outcomes in a Low-Volume Center: Survival, Stent Thrombosis, and Repeat Revascularization
Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, November 1, 2009; 2(6): 671 - 677.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
M. A. Kutcher, L. W. Klein, F.-S. Ou, T. P. Wharton Jr, G. J. Dehmer, M. Singh, H. V. Anderson, J. S. Rumsfeld, W. S. Weintraub, R. E. Shaw, et al.
Percutaneous Coronary Interventions in Facilities Without Cardiac Surgery On Site: A Report From the National Cardiovascular Data Registry (NCDR).
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., June 30, 2009; 54(1): 16 - 24.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
BMJHome page
S. S Rathore, J. P Curtis, J. Chen, Y. Wang, B. K Nallamothu, A. J Epstein, H. M Krumholz, and for the National Cardiovascular Data Registry
Association of door-to-balloon time and mortality in patients admitted to hospital with ST elevation myocardial infarction: national cohort study
BMJ, May 19, 2009; 338(may19_1): b1807 - b1807.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
T. A. MacKenzie, D. J. Malenka, E. M. Olmstead, W. D. Piper, C. Langner, C. S. Ross, G. T. O'Connor, and Northern New England Cardiovascular Disease Study
Prediction of survival after coronary revascularization: modeling short-term, mid-term, and long-term survival.
Ann. Thorac. Surg., February 1, 2009; 87(2): 463 - 472.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll Cardiol IntvHome page
L. W. Klein, P. Kolm, X. Xu, R. J. Krone, H. V. Anderson, J. S. Rumsfeld, R. G. Brindis, and W. S. Weintraub
A Longitudinal Assessment of Coronary Interventional Program Quality: A Report From the American College of Cardiology-National Cardiovascular Data Registry
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. Intv., February 1, 2009; 2(2): 136 - 143.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Circ Cardiovasc IntervHome page
M. Singh, E. D. Peterson, M. T. Roe, F.-S. Ou, J. A. Spertus, J. S. Rumsfeld, H. V. Anderson, L. W. Klein, K. K.L. Ho, and D. R. Holmes
Trends in the Association Between Age and In-Hospital Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: National Cardiovascular Data Registry Experience
Circ Cardiovasc Interv, February 1, 2009; 2(1): 20 - 26.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
HeartHome page
E Romagnoli, F Burzotta, C Trani, M Siviglia, G G L Biondi-Zoccai, G Niccoli, A M Leone, I Porto, M A Mazzari, R Mongiardo, et al.
EuroSCORE as predictor of in-hospital mortality after percutaneous coronary intervention
Heart, January 1, 2009; 95(1): 43 - 48.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
HeartHome page
P. F Ludman
Assessing the risks of percutaneous coronary intervention: do we have an equivalent of the EuroSCORE?
Heart, November 1, 2008; 94(11): 1366 - 1369.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
HeartHome page
M Singh, C S Rihal, V L Roger, R J Lennon, J Spertus, A Jahangir, and D R Holmes Jr
Comorbid conditions and outcomes after percutaneous coronary intervention
Heart, November 1, 2008; 94(11): 1424 - 1428.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Int J Qual Health CareHome page
P. Sousa, A. S. Uva, F. Pinto, and on behalf of the Investigators of PCI Registry of
Risk-adjustment model in health outcomes evaluation: a contribution to strengthen assessment towards quality improvement in interventional cardiology
Int. J. Qual. Health Care, October 1, 2008; 20(5): 324 - 330.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Circ Cardiovasc Qual OutcomesHome page
S. V. Rao and S. Y.H. Kim
Informing the Consent Process
Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes, September 1, 2008; 1(1): 7 - 8.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
CirculationHome page
M. A. Cavender and E. M. Ohman
What Do You Need to Know Before Performing a Percutaneous Coronary Intervention?
Circulation, August 5, 2008; 118(6): 609 - 611.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Circ Cardiovasc IntervHome page
M. Singh, E. D. Peterson, S. Milford-Beland, J. S. Rumsfeld, and J. A. Spertus
Validation of the Mayo Clinic Risk Score for In-Hospital Mortality After Percutaneous Coronary Interventions Using the National Cardiovascular Data Registry
Circ Cardiovasc Interv, August 1, 2008; 1(1): 36 - 44.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll Cardiol IntvHome page
S. V. Rao, F.-S. Ou, T. Y. Wang, M. T. Roe, R. Brindis, J. S. Rumsfeld, and E. D. Peterson
Trends in the Prevalence and Outcomes of Radial and Femoral Approaches to Percutaneous Coronary Intervention: A Report From the National Cardiovascular Data Registry
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. Intv., August 1, 2008; 1(4): 379 - 386.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
HeartHome page
B Kunadian, J Dunning, R Das, A P Roberts, R Morley, A J Turley, D Twomey, J A Hall, R A Wright, A G C Sutton, et al.
External validation of established risk adjustment models for procedural complications after percutaneous coronary intervention
Heart, August 1, 2008; 94(8): 1012 - 1018.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll Cardiol ImgHome page
L. J. Shaw and J. Narula
Cardiovascular imaging quality-more than a pretty picture!
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol. Img., March 1, 2008; 1(2): 266 - 269.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
CirculationHome page
T. B. Ferguson Jr
On the Evaluation of Intervention Outcome Risks for Patients With Ischemic Heart Disease
Circulation, January 22, 2008; 117(3): 333 - 335.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
S. B. King III, T. Aversano, W. L. Ballard, R. H. Beekman III, M. J. Cowley, S. G. Ellis, D. P. Faxon, E. L. Hannan, J. W. Hirshfeld Jr, A. K. Jacobs, et al.
ACCF/AHA/SCAI 2007 Update of the Clinical Competence Statement on Cardiac Interventional Procedures: A Report of the American College of Cardiology Foundation/American Heart Association/American College of Physicians Task Force on Clinical Competence and Training (Writing Committee to Update the 1998 Clinical Competence Statement on Recommendations for the Assessment and Maintenance of Proficiency in Coronary Interventional Procedures)
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., July 3, 2007; 50(1): 82 - 108.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Ann. Thorac. Surg.Home page
C. K. Haan, S. O'Brien, F. H. Edwards, E. D. Peterson, and T. B. Ferguson
Trends in emergency coronary artery bypass grafting after percutaneous coronary intervention, 1994-2003.
Ann. Thorac. Surg., May 1, 2006; 81(5): 1658 - 1665.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
HeartHome page
A D Grayson, R K Moore, M Jackson, S Rathore, S Sastry, T P Gray, I Schofield, A Chauhan, F F Ordoubadi, B Prendergast, et al.
Multivariate prediction of major adverse cardiac events after 9914 percutaneous coronary interventions in the north west of England
Heart, May 1, 2006; 92(5): 658 - 663.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
P. S. Douglas and R. G. Brindis
President's Page: A Question of Quality: Why National Benchmarking?
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., March 7, 2006; 47(5): 1076 - 1078.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
CirculationHome page
R. G. Brindis and G. J. Dehmer
Continuous Quality Improvement in the Cardiac Catheterization Laboratory: Are the Benefits Worth the Cost and Effort?
Circulation, February 14, 2006; 113(6): 767 - 770.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
CirculationHome page
M. Moscucci, E. K. Rogers, C. Montoye, D. E. Smith, D. Share, M. O'Donnell, A. Maxwell-Eward, W. L. Meengs, A. C. De Franco, K. Patel, et al.
Association of a Continuous Quality Improvement Initiative With Practice and Outcome Variations of Contemporary Percutaneous Coronary Interventions
Circulation, February 14, 2006; 113(6): 814 - 822.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
C. Wu, E. L. Hannan, G. Walford, J. A. Ambrose, D. R. Holmes Jr, S. B. King III, L. T. Clark, S. Katz, S. Sharma, and R. H. Jones
A Risk Score to Predict In-Hospital Mortality for Percutaneous Coronary Interventions
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., February 7, 2006; 47(3): 654 - 660.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
W. S. Weintraub
Evaluating the Risk of Coronary Surgery and Percutaneous Coronary Intervention
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., February 7, 2006; 47(3): 669 - 671.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
HeartHome page
K D Dawkins, T Gershlick, M de Belder, A Chauhan, G Venn, P Schofield, D Smith, J Watkins, H H Gray, and Joint Working Group on Percutaneous Coronary Inter
Percutaneous coronary intervention: recommendations for good practice and training
Heart, December 1, 2005; 91(suppl_6): vi1 - vi27.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
CirculationHome page
H. V. Anderson, R. E. Shaw, R. G. Brindis, L. W. Klein, C. R. McKay, M. A. Kutcher, R. J. Krone, M. J. Wolk, S. C. Smith Jr, and W. S. Weintraub
Relationship Between Procedure Indications and Outcomes of Percutaneous Coronary Interventions by American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force Guidelines
Circulation, November 1, 2005; 112(18): 2786 - 2791.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Nephrol Dial TransplantHome page
R. Vanholder, Z. Massy, A. Argiles, G. Spasovski, F. Verbeke, N. Lameire, and for the European Uremic Toxin Work Group (EUTox)
Chronic kidney disease as cause of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality
Nephrol. Dial. Transplant., June 1, 2005; 20(6): 1048 - 1056.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
M. Singh, C. S. Rihal, R. J. Lennon, K. N. Garratt, and D. R. Holmes Jr
Comparison of Mayo Clinic risk score and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association lesion classification in the prediction of adverse cardiovascular outcome following percutaneous coronary interventions
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., July 21, 2004; 44(2): 357 - 361.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
G. J. Dehmer, J. W. Hirshfeld, W. J. Oetgen, K. Mitchell, A. Wells Simon, M. Elma, M. A. Kellett Jr, R. G. Brindis, on behalf of the American College of Cardiology Fo, CathKIT Task Force Members, et al.
CathKIT: improving quality in the cardiac catheterization laboratory
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., March 3, 2004; 43(5): 893 - 899.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
D. A. Halon, S. Adawi, I. Dobrecky-Mery, and B. S. Lewis
Importance of increasing age on the presentation and outcome of acute coronary syndromes in elderly patients
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., February 4, 2004; 43(3): 346 - 352.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
D. E. Cutlip, K. K. L. Ho, R. E. Kuntz, and D. S. Baim
Risk assessment for percutaneous coronary intervention: our version of the weather report?
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., December 3, 2003; 42(11): 1896 - 1899.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
Mayo Clin Proc.Home page
D. R. Holmes Jr
Risk Stratification and Interventional Cardiology: Robert L. Frye Lecture
Mayo Clin. Proc., December 1, 2003; 78(12): 1507 - 1518.
[Abstract] [PDF]


Home page
HypertensionHome page
M. J. Sarnak, A. S. Levey, A. C. Schoolwerth, J. Coresh, B. Culleton, L. L. Hamm, P. A. McCullough, B. L. Kasiske, E. Kelepouris, M. J. Klag, et al.
Kidney Disease as a Risk Factor for Development of Cardiovascular Disease: A Statement From the American Heart Association Councils on Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease, High Blood Pressure Research, Clinical Cardiology, and Epidemiology and Prevention
Hypertension, November 1, 2003; 42(5): 1050 - 1065.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
CirculationHome page
M. J. Sarnak, A. S. Levey, A. C. Schoolwerth, J. Coresh, B. Culleton, L. L. Hamm, P. A. McCullough, B. L. Kasiske, E. Kelepouris, M. J. Klag, et al.
Kidney Disease as a Risk Factor for Development of Cardiovascular Disease: A Statement From the American Heart Association Councils on Kidney in Cardiovascular Disease, High Blood Pressure Research, Clinical Cardiology, and Epidemiology and Prevention
Circulation, October 28, 2003; 108(17): 2154 - 2169.
[Full Text] [PDF]


Home page
J Am Coll CardiolHome page
L. W. Klein, P. Block, R. G. Brindis, C. R. McKay, B. D. McCallister, M. Wolk, W. Weintraub, and ACC-NCDR Registry
Percutaneous coronary interventions in octogenarians in the American College of Cardiology-National Cardiovascular Data Registry: Development of a nomogram predictive of in-hospital mortality
J. Am. Coll. Cardiol., August 7, 2002; 40(3): 394 - 402.
[Abstract] [Full Text] [PDF]


This Article
Right arrow Abstract Freely available
Right arrow Figures Only
Right arrow Full Text (PDF)
Right arrow Alert me when this article is cited
Right arrow Alert me if a correction is posted
Services
Right arrow Email this article to a friend
Right arrow Similar articles in this journal
Right arrow Similar articles in PubMed
Right arrow Alert me to new issues of the journal
Right arrow Download to citation manager
Citing Articles
Right arrow Citing Articles via HighWire
Right arrow Citing Articles via Google Scholar
Google Scholar
Right arrow Articles by Shaw, R. E.
Right arrow Search for Related Content
PubMed
Right arrow PubMed Citation
Right arrow Articles by Shaw, R. E.

 
  CME Topic Collections Past Issues Search Current Issue Home

Advertisement