Comparison of Risk Stratification Schemes to Predict Thromboembolism in People With Nonvalvular Atrial Fibrillation
Margaret C. Fang, MD, MPH*,*,
Alan S. Go, MD*, ,
Yuchiao Chang, PhD ,
Leila Borowsky, MPH,
Niela K. Pomernacki, RD,
Daniel E. Singer, MD for the ATRIA Study Group
* Department of Medicine, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, California
Division of Research, Kaiser Permanente of Northern California, Oakland, California
Clinical Epidemiology Unit, Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, Massachusetts.
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Figure 1 Annual TE Rates Across Risk Groups Using 5 Risk Stratification Schemes Used to Predict AF-Related TE
The double-barred lines represent 95% confidence intervals. ACCP = American College of Chest Physicians Conference on Antithrombotic and Thrombolytic Therapy; AF = atrial fibrillation; AFI = Atrial Fibrillation Investigators; CHADS2 = congestive heart failure, hypertension, age  75 years, diabetes mellitus, and prior stroke or transient ischemic attack; SPAF = stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation; TE = thromboembolism.
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Figure 2 Proportion of ATRIA Cohort Off Warfarin and Categorized by CHADS2 Scores, Stratified by Development of TE
The distribution of person-years contributed by patients not sustaining a TE is in blue and the distribution of person-years contributed by patients sustaining a TE is in yellow. Abbreviations as in Figure 1.
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Figure 3 ROC Curves for 5 Risk Stratification Schemes Used to Predict AF-Related Thromboembolism
The 45° dotted line represents the line of no information. ROC = receiver-operating characteristic; other abbreviations as in Figure 1.
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