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Long-term risk stratification for survivors of acute coronary syndromes

Results from the long-term intervention with pravastatin in ischemic disease (LIPID) study

Ian C. Marschner, PhD^a, David Colquhoun, MD, R. John Simes, MD^a, Paul Glasziou, MD, PhD, Philip Harris, MD, Bhuwan B. Singh, MD^||, Denis Friedlander, MD^¶, Harvey White, MD, DSc^#, Peter Thompson, MD^**, Andrew Tonkin, MD on behalf of the LIPID Study Investigators

^a NHMRC Clinical Trials Center, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
Core Research Group, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
Department of Social and Preventive Medicine, University of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia
Royal Prince Alfred Hospital, Sydney, Australia
^|| Launceston General Hospital, Launceston, Australia
^¶ Waikato Hospital, Hamilton, New Zealand, Australia
^# Greenlane Hospital, Auckland, New Zealand
^** Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital, Perth, Australia
National Heart Foundation, Melbourne, Australia

View larger version (12K): [in a new window]   Figure 1 Five-year rates of coronary heart disease death and nonfatal myocardial infarction as predicted by the risk factor model versus the observed rates. Separate event rates are plotted for each of the four risk levels as determined by the prognostic index within each of the two treatment groups. Open squares = pravastatin; open circles = placebo.

View larger version (20K): [in a new window]   Figure 2 Observed five-year rates of coronary event (coronary heart disease death or nonfatal myocardial infarction) by risk level as determined by the prognostic index. (A) Observed rates broken down by treatment group. (B) Observed relative reduction in pravastatin group compared with placebo group and observed numbers needed to treat to prevent one coronary event (NNT).