Ejection fraction and risk of thromboembolic events in patients with systolic dysfunction and sinus rhythm: evidence for gender differences in the studies of left ventricular dysfunction trials

Clinical Trials Group, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, Bethesda, Maryland 20892-7936, USA. driesd@nih.nhlbi.gov

OBJECTIVES: The aims of this study were to describe the incidence and spectrum of thromboembolic events experienced by patients with moderate to severe left ventricular systolic dysfunction in normal sinus rhythm and to study the association between ejection fraction and thromboembolic risk. BACKGROUND: The annual incidence of thromboembolic events in patients with heart failure is estimated to range from 0.9% to 5.5%. Previous studies demonstrating a relation between worsening left ventricular systolic function and thromboembolic risk are difficult to interpret because of the prevalence of atrial fibrillation, an independent risk factor for thromboembolism, in the patients with a lower ejection fraction. METHODS: This is a retrospective analysis of the Studies of Left Ventricular Dysfunction prevention and treatment trials data base. Patients with atrial fibrillation were excluded, resulting in 6,378 participants in sinus rhythm at the time of randomization. Thromboembolic events include strokes, pulmonary emboli and peripheral emboli. Separate analyses were conducted in each gender because there was evidence of a significant interaction between ejection fraction and gender on the risk of thromboembolic events (p = 0.04). RESULTS: The overall annual incidence of thromboembolic events was 2.4% in women and 1.8% in men. On univariate analysis, a decline in ejection fraction was [corrected] associated with thromboembolic risk in women (relative risk [RR] per 10% decrease in ejection fraction 1.58, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.10 to 2.26, p = 0.01), but not in men. On multivariate analysis, a decline in ejection fraction remained independently associated with thromboembolic risk in women (RR per 10% decrease 1.53, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.20, p = 0.02), but no relation was demonstrated in men. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and sinus rhythm, the annual incidence of thromboembolic events is low. Ejection fraction appears to be independently associated with thromboembolic risk in women, but not in men.

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