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Figure 5 Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for screening guidelines including the first and second National Cholesterol Education Programs (NCEP I and II) and the Canadian Consensus Conference on Cholesterol (CCCC). The 45° line (broken line) represents a nondiscriminating test where the true-positive rate equals the false-positive rate. The NCEP II guidelines performed the best with an area (± SD) beneath the curve of 0.74 ± 0.03, followed by the NCEP I (0.72 ± 0.03), and the CCCC (0.70 ± 0.03). The NCEP II guidelines also performed significantly (p < 0.03) better than the NCEP I in predicting coronary deaths. The computer risk model had an area of 0.85 ± 0.02 and was a significantly (p < 0.03) better discriminator than any of the expert guidelines (Grover et al. [44]).