Click on image to view larger version.

Figure 4 Two-way sensitivity analysis shows how the optimal strategy changes as the probability of organ donation in three months (horizontal axis) and the probability of combined stage 1 mortality (vertical axis) are varied. All other probabilities are retained at baseline, as in Table 2. Strategies producing optimal survival at different values of organ availability and stage 1 mortality were: 1) Staged Surgery; 2) list for one month then perform stage 1 surgery if no donor is found (List 1 Month); 3) list for three months then perform stage 1 surgery if no donor is found (List 3 Months); and 4) list indefinitely until a donor is found (List to Tx). For example, if stage 1 mortality was <20%, staged surgery was the optimal choice. With a moderate to high organ availability (more than 30% in three months) listing for transplantation (Tx) for one month or more would provide the highest survival. The star indicates the decision-tree baseline probabilities of organ donation in three months, 0.64; and stage 1 mortality, 0.48.