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Figure 3 Threshold values of one-way sensitivity analyses, which vary each probability separately, are shown. A threshold value is the value of the probability at which the optimal strategy changed. Thresholds were obtained in the probabilities (shown along the vertical axis) for stage 1 mortality, stage 2 mortality, organ availability and mortality after transplantation. Therefore, these probabilities are most important to the decision. The optimal strategy for particular values of each probability is shown by the pattern corresponding to the legend (right). For example, a center with a combined stage 1 mortality of 15% would optimize survival by offering staged surgery, whereas a center with a stage 1 mortality of 30% would optimize survival by listing the patient for one month before performing stage 1 surgery if no donor is found. No thresholds were found for other probabilities. Black dots indicate the baseline values in the decision tree. The baseline values all lie in probability ranges that favor listing the patient for one month. Tx = transplantation.